Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: AI
KXWORDOFTHEYEAR-26DEC-AI
Cluster 2
Will Brainrot be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Cluster 3
Will Lore be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Will Lore be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Lore
KXWORDOFTHEYEAR-26DEC-LOR
Cluster 4
Will Vibe be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Will Vibe be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Vibe
KXWORDOFTHEYEAR-26DEC-VIB
Analysis
This question asks whether Merriam-Webster will select a word related to artificial intelligence as its 2026 Word of the Year. At 8%, the market suggests this is unlikely, though not impossible. The probability reflects two competing dynamics: AI's continued prominence in technology and culture could drive selection, but Merriam-Webster historically chooses words with broad cultural resonance beyond tech sectors. The announcement typically occurs in November, providing seven months of clarity on what linguistic trends dominate public discourse. Key factors include whether AI-related terminology becomes more embedded in everyday language, how competing major events (political, cultural, social) generate alternative word candidates, and Merriam-Webster's historical tendency to favor words addressing universal human experiences over industry-specific terminology. The outcome will depend on whether AI maintains its novelty status or becomes so commonplace that alternative words better capture 2026's defining moment.
- ›Merriam-Webster's historical pattern of selecting words reflecting broad cultural moments rather than technology sector terminology
- ›Degree to which AI-related language becomes embedded in everyday conversation versus remaining tech-concentrated discourse
- ›Emergence of competing major events or social phenomena in 2026 that generate strong alternative word candidates
- ›Whether AI terminology evolves in 2026 (new terms entering mainstream) or remains linguistically stable
- ›Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year announcement occurring in November, providing resolution based on year-long linguistic trends
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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