Will AI be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Brainrot be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Cluster 2
Will Vibe be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Will Vibe be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: Vibe
KXWORDOFTHEYEAR-26DEC-VIB
Cluster 3
Will larping be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Will larping be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026?: larping
KXWORDOFTHEYEAR-26DEC-LAR
Cluster 4
Will Performative be in the “Word of the Year” as designated by Merriam-Webster in 2026
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Merriam-Webster will select an AI-related word as its Word of the Year for 2026. Merriam-Webster has designated a single word annually since 2003, typically choosing terms that reflect significant cultural moments or linguistic shifts. The 10% probability suggests skepticism about AI being selected, despite the technology's prominence. Market participants appear to favor competing words like "larping" (14%) over AI-related terms, indicating fragmentation among potential candidates. The main factors influencing this probability are the breadth of linguistic contenders in 2026 and whether any single AI term gains sufficient cultural prominence by year-end to distinguish itself as the defining word of the year. Merriam-Webster will announce its selection in early December 2026.
- ›Merriam-Webster's selection criteria prioritize cultural significance and widespread adoption rather than technological importance alone; AI usage remains normalized rather than novel by late 2026
- ›Competing candidates like 'larping' (14%) and 'brainrot' (11%) command higher probabilities, suggesting the prediction market views non-AI words as more likely contenders
- ›AI-related terminology would need to achieve notable linguistic evolution or cultural meaning shift specific to 2026 to compete against other emerging slang or cultural phenomena
- ›The announcement occurs in early December 2026; no interim data releases will clarify Merriam-Webster's selection process before that final date
- ›Historical precedent shows Merriam-Webster rarely selects technology-centric terms unless paired with distinct cultural implications beyond technical advancement
What moved the line
- Sep 17Vibe↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Vibe↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Brainrot↑3pp8→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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