Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 11¢ price reflects a skeptical view of Pegula's Grand Slam prospects over the next 258 days, though the 1625.8% implied yield on Yes positions suggests meaningful asymmetric upside if she performs a breakthrough run.
Analysis
The 11¢ price reflects a skeptical view of Pegula's Grand Slam prospects over the next 258 days, though the 1625.8% implied yield on Yes positions suggests meaningful asymmetric upside if she performs a breakthrough run. Volume is thin at $93.55 over 24 hours with only $1,521.55 open interest, indicating low liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions, while the recent price decline from 9¢ to 8¢ suggests weakening conviction among traders despite the substantial Yes yield available.
Resolution rules
If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG yes 100