Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 87.00 and 87.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 87.00 and 87.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 202% on the No side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly undervalues the $1.00 wide price band's probability.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 202% on the No side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly undervalues the $1.00 wide price band's probability. The minimal liquidity ($4,481.93 in 24h volume) and tight open interest ($4,429.68) indicate thin order books that likely cannot support the massive yield differential, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity for sophisticated traders. With 6 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market remains relatively stable, though the recent price movement from 2¢ to 3¢ suggests some accumulation of Yes positions ahead of resolution.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $87.00 and 87.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B87.5 yes 100