Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 88.00 and 88.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 88.00 and 88.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 276.3% on the No side, suggesting the 8¢ price significantly undervalues the $1 wide price band's probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 276.3% on the No side, suggesting the 8¢ price significantly undervalues the $1 wide price band's probability. The market has doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days with only $4,590.61 in 24-hour volume and a tight 8¢ spread, indicating low liquidity that may be distorting the pricing. With 6 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, the extreme yield differential and narrow trading range warrant caution, as the market may be illiquid enough that the current price doesn't reflect true consensus on WTI settling within this relatively wide $88-$88.99 band.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $88.00 and 88.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B88.5 yes 100