Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2045. The 20¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about Li Xi's succession prospects, with the "No" side offering only a 1.0% implied yield compared to 28.0% for "Yes" believers, suggesting the market views his ascension as unlikely but not impossible.
Analysis
The 20¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about Li Xi's succession prospects, with the "No" side offering only a 1.0% implied yield compared to 28.0% for "Yes" believers, suggesting the market views his ascension as unlikely but not impossible. The extremely thin liquidity ($1,116 open interest, $119 daily volume) and modest 2¢ spread create meaningful execution risk for larger positions, while the 6,834-day time horizon to resolution substantially reduces cliff risk despite the 5-point index reading. Recent price erosion from 17¢ to 16¢ over seven days hints at declining conviction among holders, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional momentum.
Resolution rules
If Li Xi is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LXI yes 100