Air Force vs Mercer Winner?

25¢

Bid/Ask 13/17¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $23·Closes May 2, 2026·15d remaining

KXNCAAMLAXGAME-26APR18AIRMER-MER

7-day price13 snapshots

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $23 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 4¢ spread. The astronomical 16,325% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 792% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests either severe mispricing or a technical artifact from minimal trading activity. With 15 days to expiry and the underlying game originally scheduled for April 18, clarification is needed on whether this market remains active or if the event date has passed.

Resolution rules

If Mercer is the winner in the Air Force vs Mercer Men's College Lacrosse game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 16324.9%

IY (No) 364.5%

Adj IY 16325%

CRI 7

RV 792%

VR 0.66

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	16324.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	364.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	16325%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	792%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.66	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 6:54:45 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 6:53:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAAMLAXGAME-26APR18AIRMER-MER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →