Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Barry Moore is priced at 80¢ with just 32 days to resolution, but the market shows signs of stress: the No side offers an extreme 4566% implied yield versus only 285% for Yes, and realized volatility has spiked to 288% despite relatively thin $1.25K daily volume.
Analysis
Barry Moore is priced at 80¢ with just 32 days to resolution, but the market shows signs of stress: the No side offers an extreme 4566% implied yield versus only 285% for Yes, and realized volatility has spiked to 288% despite relatively thin $1.25K daily volume. The price has already declined 5¢ over the past week, and the elevated cliff risk index (4) combined with a 1.65 volatility ratio suggests significant uncertainty about whether Moore will actually secure the Republican nomination, making this a high-conviction bet with substantial tail risk.
Also on kalshi at 81¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x11d4960a26b0696cb8c854e409944e8a69fefba21c68554187f29615ff5d3457 yes 100