Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Matt Mahan is priced at a 9% probability of winning California's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting significant skepticism about the San Jose mayor's viability as a statewide candidate. The market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,846% implied yield on YES contracts versus just 18.1% on NO, though the risk-adjusted yield of 820% and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 10 suggest considerable uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing. With $131,791 in open interest and $8.6K in daily volume, liquidity is moderate but the recent 10-cent-to-9-cent decline over seven days indicates weakening conviction in Mahan's chances.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Edges (1)

Trade