CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing October 14, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome—core CPI hitting exactly 2.2% YoY in September 2026—at just 6 cents, implying only a 6% probability, which generates an outsized 3,195.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome—core CPI hitting exactly 2.2% YoY in September 2026—at just 6 cents, implying only a 6% probability, which generates an outsized 3,195.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The near-zero liquidity ($2 open interest, $0 volume in 24 hours) and wide 6-cent spread suggest this is essentially illiquid and potentially mispriced, as the exact-match resolution criterion makes it a long-shot bet that may be undervalued given the Fed's current inflation trajectory and the 179-day timeframe. The 16 Cliff Risk Index flags potential volatility around the resolution date, and the stark contrast between the Yes yield and the No yield (13.0%) underscores how extreme the probability discount is.
Resolution rules
If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26SEP-T2.2 yes 100