CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome—exactly 4.2% YoY CPI in April 2026—at just 13¢, implying a 13% probability, yet the Yes side shows a staggering 10,739.9% implied yield.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome—exactly 4.2% YoY CPI in April 2026—at just 13¢, implying a 13% probability, yet the Yes side shows a staggering 10,739.9% implied yield. The zero 24-hour volume and minimal $801.98 open interest suggest severe illiquidity, making the 4¢ spread potentially misleading; with only 23 days to expiry, any resolution will likely create sharp moves for the few positions held. The cliff risk index of 7 and massive yield asymmetry (239.8% on the No side) indicate this is a tail-risk contract where the exact specification creates outsized payoff potential relative to the tiny notional exposure.
Resolution rules
If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.2% in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECONSTATCPIYOY-26APR-T4.2 yes 100