CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This 7% probability represents the market's current assessment that the headline Consumer Price Index will increase by exactly 2.7% year-over-year when June 2026 data is released. The current pricing reflects expectations that inflation will remain relatively stable near the Federal Reserve's target, though the low probability assigned to any single outcome point indicates substantial uncertainty about the exact reading. The June CPI release—scheduled for early July 2026—will provide critical data on whether recent inflation trends have continued, accelerated, or moderated. Market participants are weighing factors including recent monetary policy decisions, labor market dynamics, and energy price movements. The concentration of contract prices around 2.6-3.0% suggests consensus clustering, but the fragmentation across multiple specific outcomes explains why the single 2.7% contract carries only 7% odds despite representing the modal expectation.

• ›The June CPI release date (typically early July) serves as the hard resolution event; prior weekly jobless claims, producer price data, and energy prices will provide directional signals
• ›Recent Fed policy stance and forward guidance on interest rates influence expectations for the inflation trajectory between now and June
• ›Energy commodity prices and supply disruptions could materially shift the 2-3% forecast range, as gasoline and heating costs feed directly into headline CPI
• ›Wage growth trends and labor market tightness in May-June will affect core CPI momentum and potentially headline readings
• ›The distribution of open contracts shows expectations concentrated 2.6-3.0%, making outcomes outside this band statistically less probable but not precluded by market data

What moved the line

• Jun 21Exactly 3.7%↓11pp24→13¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Exactly 3.7%↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Exactly 3.9%↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Exactly 3.8%↑5pp37→42¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Exactly 3.7%↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in economy

• US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
• Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
• South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
• What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
• Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds