Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?

The Republican probability in FL-22 has collapsed 41 percentage points over seven days to just 24¢, suggesting a significant shift in the race dynamics or new information favoring Democrats. The extreme 578% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 742% realized volatility and a 3.43 vol ratio indicates severe mispricing or genuine uncertainty, though the thin $1,312 daily volume raises questions about whether this price reflects genuine market consensus or illiquidity-driven swings. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market warrants close monitoring for the catalyst behind the recent repricing and whether the Democratic momentum is sustainable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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