Game 3: Detroit at Orlando Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Game 3: Detroit at Orlando Winner?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity concerns with only $91 open interest and a 35¢ spread, making the 9214.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity concerns with only $91 open interest and a 35¢ spread, making the 9214.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The contract has already moved down 2¢ over seven days and appears significantly mispriced given the 50¢ midpoint—the asymmetric yields (9214.5% vs 334.3%) suggest the market is struggling to find equilibrium with minimal trading activity ($20 in 24h volume). With 21 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this is a speculative micro-market best avoided by most traders due to execution risk and the likelihood that any attempted position would move prices substantially.
Resolution rules
If Orlando wins the Game 3: Detroit at Orlando professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR25DETORL-ORL yes 100