Game 3: San Antonio at Portland Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Game 3: San Antonio at Portland Winner?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing May 9, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing anomalies typical of a sports contract with minimal trading activity—just $369.69 in 24-hour volume against $1,453.03 open interest.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing anomalies typical of a sports contract with minimal trading activity—just $369.69 in 24-hour volume against $1,453.03 open interest. The 27¢ price implies a 27% win probability for Portland, but the astronomical 4,832.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in binary event risk rather than fundamental probability. With 20 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the market appears vulnerable to sharp repricing as the game approaches, particularly given the 7-point price movement over the past week (20¢ to 27¢) despite minimal volume.
Resolution rules
If Portland wins the Game 3: San Antonio at Portland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAGAME-26APR24SASPOR-POR yes 100