How high will CPI get this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that How high will CPI get this year?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,010 open interest, making the 83¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 11¢ spread suggesting uncertainty among sparse participants.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,010 open interest, making the 83¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 11¢ spread suggesting uncertainty among sparse participants. The dramatic 7-day price decline from 80¢ to 66¢ signals a significant bearish repricing, yet the current 83¢ ask contradicts this recent momentum and warrants skepticism about whether that price reflects genuine conviction or stale quotes. The No side's 273% implied yield is notably elevated, indicating the market may be overpricing the Yes outcome given recent downward pressure and the relatively high 3.8% CPI threshold for resolution.
Resolution rules
If any Consumer Price Index (CPI YoY) report is above 3.8% for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHIGHINFLATION-26DEC-T3.8 yes 100