Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

The market is pricing an extremely low 7% probability for 6-7 Iranian ship attacks by April 30, 2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 35,255% annualized yield with only 14 days to expiry—a classic tail-risk setup where the massive payout reflects the binary nature of the bet rather than genuine expected value. The 6¢ spread and thin $85.96 daily volume suggest minimal liquidity for a market with $10.7M open interest, creating potential execution challenges, while the realized volatility of 2,383% and cliff risk index of 13 indicate extreme price sensitivity to any news of Iranian maritime action. The flat 7-day price movement and neutral regime score suggest the market has stabilized around this low probability despite the high information arrival rate of 3.1 events per hour, implying recent geopolitical developments have already been priced in.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade