Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 987% and an implied yield on "Yes" positions reaching 6813%, reflecting the binary geopolitical nature of Iran nuclear negotiations with just 14 days to expiry. The price has tripled from 12¢ to 28¢ over seven days with moderate volume of $67.4k, suggesting recent positive sentiment toward a deal, though the 28% probability still reflects skepticism about achieving such a major agreement in the compressed timeframe. The 3.0 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score indicate market uncertainty, with information arriving at 2.9 events per hour suggesting active monitoring of diplomatic developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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