Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Hassan Rouhani's probability of leading Iran by end-2026 has collapsed from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, reflecting market skepticism about his political viability given Iran's current leadership structure under Supreme Leader Khamenei. The extreme 3386% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals either deep mispricing or recognition of tail-risk scenarios (such as major regime upheaval), though the modest $674K daily volume and 24 Cliff Risk Index suggest limited liquidity to support such outsized returns. With 259 days to expiry and a 1¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the overwhelming consensus (96% probability on "No") may leave room for unexpected political developments, but current pricing reflects near-zero expectations for Rouhani's restoration to executive power.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Indicators

Regime

Trade