Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. McMorrow's odds have declined 6 percentage points over the past week to 47¢, suggesting either emerging competition or reduced confidence in her candidacy, though the 109-day timeline leaves substantial room for campaign developments.
Analysis
McMorrow's odds have declined 6 percentage points over the past week to 47¢, suggesting either emerging competition or reduced confidence in her candidacy, though the 109-day timeline leaves substantial room for campaign developments. The extremely high realized volatility of 499% and implied yield of 378% indicate this market is pricing in significant uncertainty, with the vol ratio of 2.36 suggesting options markets expect even greater price swings ahead. Despite modest 24-hour volume of just over $1,000, the $26k open interest and tight 3¢ spread suggest reasonable liquidity for a niche political prediction with nearly four months until resolution.
Also on kalshi at 48¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xeb44a06c677ce7a47e5fd2007182e020a577395dc3613ad55d3d576e33964c3d yes 100