Will Miguel Andujar win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?

Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Miguel Andujar win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 82¢ spread despite $1.2M open interest, suggesting the quoted 41¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

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42¢
Bid/Ask /83¢·Spread 83¢·Vol $0·OI $1,220.832·Closes Dec 19, 2026·241d remaining
0x63b2ff2af875897184673c399c113978baea89465a6485c4acdc6c764d95f479
7-day price103 snapshots · 5 regime
42¢42¢ current
Apr 1330¢Apr 18

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 82¢ spread despite $1.2M open interest, suggesting the quoted 41¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 213% implied yield on the yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 247-day time horizon, indicating either severe mispricing or market participants pricing in substantial uncertainty around Andujar's DH eligibility and performance through 2026. The 293% realized volatility and 2.03 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced sharp historical price swings, though the flat 7-day price action indicates current stagnation likely due to the lack of recent information arrival.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 209.0%
IY (No) 109.6%
Adj IY 105%
CRI 1
Overround 8.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)209.0%
IY (No)109.6%
Adj IY105%
CRI1
Overround8.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
83¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:16:23 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x63b2ff2af875897184673c399c113978baea89465a6485c4acdc6c764d95f479 yes 100

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