Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16.9M open interest, suggesting the displayed price may not reflect actual tradeable liquidity and could be stale. The 958.5% implied yield on the "No" side is extraordinarily high and mathematically inconsistent with the 84¢ price, indicating potential data anomalies or a severely mispriced tail outcome. With nearly two years until resolution and only a 1¢ price decline over seven days, the market appears relatively stable, though traders should verify current liquidity before entering positions given the concerning volume and yield metrics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade