North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Leader sits at 84% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Roy Cooper (D)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Michael Whatley (R)
Spread
68pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
137 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Analysis
The 86% probability reflects market expectation that a specific candidate will win North Carolina's Senate seat, with the remaining 14% assigned to the alternative outcome. Current market pricing is heavily influenced by polling data and historical voting patterns in the state, which has trended Republican in recent cycles. The probability could shift materially based on campaign developments, economic conditions closer to Election Day, or changes in voter registration patterns. The North Carolina Senate election is scheduled for November 2026, providing several months for new information to emerge that could adjust these odds. Key determinants include candidate quality, national political environment, and turnout dynamics in competitive regions of the state.
- ›Recent North Carolina statewide elections show Republican strength, but Senate races can diverge from presidential patterns due to candidate-specific factors
- ›Polymarket contracts show significant volume concentration ($17,426 in 24h volume for comparable race), indicating active price discovery but relatively modest total liquidity
- ›Kalshi margin-of-victory contracts price Republican victory at 1+ points (11¢) and Democratic 9+ point victory at 51¢, suggesting asymmetric outcome expectations
- ›The November 2026 election date is approximately six months away, leaving substantial time for polling shifts, candidate emergence or withdrawal, or demographic changes to materially alter probabilities
- ›Volume and pricing differences across platforms may reflect different market participants and information sets, worth monitoring for consensus shifts
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (84% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight
The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.