Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Toby Doeden is priced at 34¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,475% for "Yes" positions, suggesting either severe underpricing or minimal market confidence in his candidacy relative to other Republican primary contenders.
Analysis
Toby Doeden is priced at 34¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,475% for "Yes" positions, suggesting either severe underpricing or minimal market confidence in his candidacy relative to other Republican primary contenders. The market shows modest liquidity ($186.65 in 24h volume) and a tight 5¢ spread, but the 178% realized volatility indicates significant price swings despite the neutral regime, with the price having moved only 2¢ over seven days. With 46 days until the June 2, 2026 primary and a low info arrival rate of 0.5/hour, this appears to be a relatively quiet market that may be vulnerable to sudden shifts as the election approaches.
Also on kalshi at 33¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe53a3545d1b55e0075b3f4863d538e959dc722c066293a0f41ce5a429ee9fcd0 yes 100