Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026. This market shows Ken Paxton at 60¢ with just 39 days to expiry, but displays concerning structural issues: the "No" side offers an extreme 1405.5% implied yield versus only 624.7% for "Yes," suggesting severe mispricing or that traders heavily favor an alternative outcome.
Analysis
This market shows Ken Paxton at 60¢ with just 39 days to expiry, but displays concerning structural issues: the "No" side offers an extreme 1405.5% implied yield versus only 624.7% for "Yes," suggesting severe mispricing or that traders heavily favor an alternative outcome. The resolution criteria appear incomplete (text cuts off mid-sentence), creating ambiguity about what actually triggers resolution, which combined with 100% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 2 indicates elevated uncertainty near expiration. With $61.6k open interest but only $14.2k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is moderate and the tight 1¢ spread masks potential execution challenges given the market's apparent dysfunction.
Also on kalshi at 58¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x99a0fdc1bb6308873bf87eb75a47e21c8340fe20fb6b033444c1d21392da10a9 yes 100