Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ken Paxton
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
John Cornyn
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$120K
liquid
Closes
May 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
Ken Paxton holds a 57% probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary, reflecting moderately favorable odds among prediction market participants. This probability suggests genuine uncertainty, with Cornyn at 43% representing a meaningful competitive threat. The outcome hinges on voter appetite for Paxton's record as Attorney General versus any concerns about his prior legal challenges, combined with campaign organization and endorsement dynamics heading into the primary. National political dynamics, fundraising reports, and polling data closer to the election will likely shift these odds, as will any significant candidate developments or endorsements from Texas Republican leadership. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst, providing the definitive outcome and resolving current market positioning.
- ›Paxton's current Attorney General tenure and approval rating among Texas Republicans versus Cornyn's prior Senate service and establishment backing
- ›Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand figures for both candidates as reported through FEC filings
- ›Public polling of the Texas Republican primary matchup released in the months preceding the election
- ›Endorsement patterns from major Texas Republican figures, party leadership, and national Republican organizations
- ›Voter turnout levels and demographic composition in the actual primary election relative to historical patterns
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential electionlast 5% · 1d
- Will a budget resolution passed the House before Aug 1, 2026last 90% · 1d
- Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-5last 50% · 2d
- Will Maria Flores be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08last 56% · 2d
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterm Elections: High-Volume Action on House and Senate Control
Democrats favored to win House at 82¢ (KXCONTROLH) while Senate is a toss-up. Key Senate races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) see heavy trading. Primary markets are also active with high-volume contracts on Florida governor, Wisconsin governor, and Michigan Senate primaries.
2026 US Midterm Primaries Heat Up – Michigan Senate Race Draws Record Volume
The Michigan Senate Democratic primary has become the most actively traded election market, with Abdul El-Sayed leading at 67¢ and Haley Stevens at 31¢. Overall, Democrats are favored to keep the House (81¢) while the Senate remains a toss-up (Republicans 54¢). The SAVE Act (voter ID) languishes at 9¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.