Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ken Paxton
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
John Cornyn
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$120K
liquid
Closes
May 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
Ken Paxton holds a 57% probability of winning the Texas Republican Senate primary, reflecting moderately favorable odds among prediction market participants. This probability suggests genuine uncertainty, with Cornyn at 43% representing a meaningful competitive threat. The outcome hinges on voter appetite for Paxton's record as Attorney General versus any concerns about his prior legal challenges, combined with campaign organization and endorsement dynamics heading into the primary. National political dynamics, fundraising reports, and polling data closer to the election will likely shift these odds, as will any significant candidate developments or endorsements from Texas Republican leadership. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst, providing the definitive outcome and resolving current market positioning.
- ›Paxton's current Attorney General tenure and approval rating among Texas Republicans versus Cornyn's prior Senate service and establishment backing
- ›Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand figures for both candidates as reported through FEC filings
- ›Public polling of the Texas Republican primary matchup released in the months preceding the election
- ›Endorsement patterns from major Texas Republican figures, party leadership, and national Republican organizations
- ›Voter turnout levels and demographic composition in the actual primary election relative to historical patterns
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 US Senate Race Markets Tighten: Texas a Toss-Up, Senate Control in Play
2026 Senate race markets are heating up, with Texas a near toss-up (Republican 52¢, Democrat 48¢) and Michigan and Maine showing Democratic advantages. The overall Senate control market is split, with Republicans at 52¢ and Democrats at 47¢, signaling a highly competitive battle for the chamber.
Midterms 2026: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Coin Flip
The 2026 US midterm elections are the most traded topic, with the House control market at 84¢ for Democrats and Senate control essentially tied at 52¢ Republican vs 47¢ Democratic. The Texas Senate race is a pure 50/50 toss‑up. Brazilian election shows Lula leading but not decisively. Any new polling data or candidate announcements will move these markets sharply.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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