Will the Democratic Party win the TX-38 House seat?

The Democratic probability in TX-38 is priced at just 16¢, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean, though the 955% implied yield on the Yes side suggests substantial upside if Democrats defy historical patterns. With $15,124 in open interest but zero 24-hour volume and a 2¢ spread, liquidity is extremely thin, making this market vulnerable to price slippage and potentially unreliable for large position sizing. The elevated realized volatility (457%) and high cliff risk index (5) indicate significant uncertainty despite the low price, warranting caution about the reliability of this probability estimate given the illiquid market conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade