Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely peace deal outcome at just 8¢, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 5,675% implied yield—a massive risk-reward skew typical of long-shot binary events with 74 days to expiry. The 20% price decline over seven days (from 10¢ to 8¢) suggests deteriorating sentiment toward a near-term resolution, while the modest $145k daily volume and $17.9M open interest indicate relatively thin liquidity for such a high-yield opportunity. The 12 Cliff Risk Index flags elevated tail risk, meaning resolution could hinge on sudden geopolitical developments rather than gradual probability shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade