Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

This market shows extreme distress pricing with the Yes contract at just 5¢ despite closing on the same day as the GDP release (April 30), creating a cliff risk scenario where traders face resolution uncertainty. The implied yield on Yes positions exceeds 43,000%, suggesting either severe mispricing or that the market has priced in near-zero probability of Q1 2026 GDP exceeding 3.5% annualized growth. The 7-day collapse from 11¢ to 5¢ combined with 2,151% realized volatility indicates significant recent bearish conviction, though the modest $740k daily volume and tight $8.1M open interest raise questions about whether this reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity amplifying directional moves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

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