US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

With just 14 days to expiry, this market shows extreme implied yields (4163% for Yes) reflecting the binary nature of near-term resolution, yet the 39¢ price suggests only a 39% probability of a deal—a notably skeptical assessment given ongoing geopolitical tensions. The 7-day price surge from 28¢ to 39¢ (+39% movement) combined with elevated 24-hour volume of $94.7K indicates recent positive sentiment shift, though the 672% realized volatility and 2.9 info arrivals per hour suggest this remains highly uncertain territory. The zero spread and neutral regime score mask what appears to be genuine disagreement on deal likelihood, making this a high-conviction contrarian play for either side.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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