What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 17 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$58K
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
Cluster 2
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
Analysis
This market estimates a 31% probability that Apple's stock price will reach $292 or higher during April 2026. The current pricing reflects moderate skepticism about Apple achieving this target within the specified timeframe. The probability is influenced by Apple's recent stock performance, broader market conditions, and the company's ability to deliver growth catalysts such as new product announcements or earnings beats. Resolution will be determined by Apple's actual stock price during April 2026, with the outcome depending heavily on macroeconomic factors, technology sector momentum, and company-specific developments over the coming months. Current market sentiment suggests traders view this price level as attainable but not the base case.
- ›Apple's closing price in April 2026 must reach $292 to resolve affirmatively; the market currently prices in moderate skepticism about this outcome occurring within the specified month
- ›Broader equity market performance and technology sector valuations in early 2026 will significantly influence Apple's stock trajectory independent of company-specific factors
- ›Apple's Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings reports and forward guidance will be key data points affecting investor sentiment and stock performance leading into April
- ›Macroeconomic conditions including interest rates and inflation trends between now and April 2026 will impact market risk appetite and growth stock valuations
- ›Historical volatility in Apple's stock and current technical levels relative to the $292 target provide context for assessing the difficulty of reaching this price within a single month
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 60↓14pp82→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↑ 90,000↑5pp28→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑ 90,000↓5pp33→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↑ 100,000↑3pp17→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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