Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing a 25% probability of Bitcoin touching $40,000 by end-2026, offering an exceptionally high 401% implied yield on "Yes" positions despite substantial 259 days to expiry and healthy $7.5M daily volume. The sharp 40% price decline over seven days (35¢ to 25¢) suggests either deteriorating conviction in a dip scenario or recent upward Bitcoin momentum, while the 1.50 volatility ratio and 266% realized volatility indicate elevated uncertainty that could support mean-reversion trades. The tight 1¢ spread and $44M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the cliff risk index of 3 warrants caution around the November 24, 2025 observation window start date.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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