What will Palantir (PLTR) hit in April 2026?
Leader sits at 72% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1,500
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
↓ 60
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$56K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
Analysis
This market estimates a 72% probability that Palantir's stock will reach $183 or higher by April 2026. The elevated probability reflects current market sentiment around the company's growth trajectory and AI-driven business momentum. Key drivers include Palantir's earnings performance, government contract wins, and broader tech sector valuations. The resolution depends on actual stock price movement over the coming months, with quarterly earnings reports and major contract announcements serving as potential inflection points. Market participants are pricing in either sustained momentum or correction from current levels, though the narrow gap between the leading contract (72%) and runner-up (71%) suggests meaningful disagreement about whether this price target is achievable within the timeframe.
- ›Palantir's current stock price relative to the $183 target and historical volatility patterns
- ›Quarterly earnings results and guidance from Q2-Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
- ›Government contract announcements and commercial revenue growth rates
- ›Broader technology sector performance and valuations during the period
- ›Trading volume and liquidity patterns as the target price approaches
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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