SimpleFunctions
18 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses Jan 1, 2027 · 237d

What will Palantir (PLTR) hit in April 2026?

Bracket↑ $183

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 18 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

26%

18 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$134K

18 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

237 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 24% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 24% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 18 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

What price

17 contracts$134K

Cluster 2

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June

1 contract$25

What moved the line

  • May 6↑ 90,00010pp6171¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6↓ 30,00010pp2010¢ · Polymarket
  • May 6↓ 609pp6455¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2↑ 200,0008pp124¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2↓ 168pp2517¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.