What is the current probability for "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1292.5% and 16.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 4/16¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $954.288·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0x491d08b98a6beb3f7182f4760fe5ed1e50bed572c835a5f886adf61681617628

7-day price324 snapshots · 2 regime

10¢10¢ current

Apr 88¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point. This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1292.5%

IY (No) 16.0%

Adj IY 1292%

CRI 9

RV 778%

VR 2.05

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1292.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1292%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	778%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.05	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:21:23 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x491d08b98a6beb3f7182f4760fe5ed1e50bed572c835a5f886adf61681617628 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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