ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Sep 23, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

15 source contracts·Kalshi 15·closed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 100d

Where is the S&P 500 heading?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 15 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

22%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

22%

15 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$1.8M

15 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

100 days

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC?86¢$14K Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?67¢$373K Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?44¢$12K Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?35¢$179K

30-day trend

Aggregate of 15 contracts · 23d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 15 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will the maximum SP500 value reach

6 contracts$905K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-7999.99

67¢±0$373KK→

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8199.99

35¢−2pp$179KK→

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8399.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8399.99

16¢±0$115KK→

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8599.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8599.99

9¢−2pp$98KK→

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8999.99

4¢+1pp$88KK→

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8799.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8799.99

6¢−1pp$53KK→

Cluster 2

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below

5 contracts$854K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 5900.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-5900.01

8¢+1pp$338KK→

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6300.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-6300.01

10¢−4pp$185KK→

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6000.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-6000.01

8¢+1pp$145KK→

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6200.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-6200.01

9¢−5pp$103KK→

Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6100.01 by Jan 1, 2027?

KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-6100.01

10¢−1pp$83KK→

Cluster 3

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before

2 contracts$16K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?

KXSP500WHEN-8000-26NOV01

44¢−11pp$12KK→

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Oct 1, 2026?

KXSP500WHEN-8000-26OCT01

9¢+7pp$4KK→

Cluster 4

Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC

1 contract$14K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC?

KXINXVSBTC-26DEC31-INXTR

86¢+2pp$14KK→

Cluster 5

Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index

1 contract$11K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?

KXINXVSBTC-26DEC31-BTC

11¢+1pp$11KK→

Analysis

Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC?" 86¢; kalshi "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7999.99 by Jan 1, 2027?" 67¢; kalshi "Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?" 35¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

›S&P 500 at $773.25
›44% chance of breaching 8,000 by Nov 1
›Low risk of sub-6,000 correction
›86% preference for S&P 500 over Bitcoin
›Bullish futures sentiment

What moved the line

Sep 19Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?↓11pp30→19¢ · Kalshi
Sep 19Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Oct 1, 2026?↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
Sep 17Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?↓6pp27→21¢ · Kalshi
Sep 18Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Nov 1, 2026?↓5pp35→30¢ · Kalshi
Sep 18Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6200.01 by Jan 1, 2027?↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in economy

Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?last 31% · 0d
What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 35% · 0d
What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 33% · 0d
Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 28% · 0d
What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 57% · 0d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Adjacent prediction questions.

In economy

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Aprillead 92%Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026lead 95%Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 7.5%lead 86%Unemployment rate in May 2026lead 21%US Nominal GDP in 202684%Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026lead 97%

Browse all prediction questions →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.

Ask about this →