Where is the S&P 500 heading?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22K
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
194 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before J
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?
KXSTOCKBANHOUSE-26JUL01
Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jan 1, 2027?
KXSTOCKBANHOUSE-27JAN01
Analysis
The S&P 500 is currently trading at $747.53, reflecting general market strength, while prediction markets indicate very low probability for near-term legislative action prohibiting Congressional stock trading. Specifically, there is only a 4% chance that legislation banning Congressional stock purchases will pass the House by July 1, 2026, with odds only slightly higher at 18% for such action to occur by January 1, 2027.
- ›S&P 500 trading at $747.53
- ›Low legislative risk of stock ban
- ›Positive equity market momentum
- ›4% probability of near-term House passage
What moved the line
- Jun 14Will legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, even if it allows for purchasing stocks via a blind trust or the purchase of “diversified assets” (such as ETFs or mutual funds) passed the House before Jul 1, 2026?↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In economy
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.