Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?

The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 16¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting either de-escalation in regional tensions or resolution of a specific threat catalyst. The extreme 45,486% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects the asymmetric risk-reward typical of tail-event markets, though the 1,117% realized volatility and thin $84k daily volume indicate low liquidity and potential for sharp moves in the final 11 days. With a Cliff Risk Index of 13 and only 0.3 information arrivals per hour, the market appears relatively stable but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, making this a speculative bet on a low-probability event with outsized payoff potential.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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