Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing December 9, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 4% probability that the Fed funds rate upper bound stays at 3.0% through end-2026, implying traders expect either rate cuts below 3.0% or hikes above it with roughly 96% confidence.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 4% probability that the Fed funds rate upper bound stays at 3.0% through end-2026, implying traders expect either rate cuts below 3.0% or hikes above it with roughly 96% confidence. The extreme 3,711.6% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the massive payout relative to the tiny 4¢ price, though this is offset by the modest $25,464 open interest and $3,499 daily volume, suggesting limited liquidity for a binary bet with 236 days to expiry. The recent price movement from 3¢ to 4¢ over seven days indicates slight upward momentum, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and moderate cliff risk index (24) suggest the market remains relatively balanced without imminent resolution pressure.
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
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sf trade 0xf9ca1f6608ee282342a6c8d108dda15b91fc9cc1cf9e90a548c3ae5f825b425f yes 100