What is the current probability for "When will Anduril IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Anduril IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 93920.9% and 163.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Anduril IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Anduril IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low 4% probability of an Anduril IPO by May 2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 61,956% implied yield—a massive asymmetry suggesting either severe illiquidity or mispricing given the defense contractor's known IPO ambitions.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/1¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $1,486·Closes May 1, 2026·9d remaining

KXIPOANDURIL-26MAY01

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing an extremely low 4% probability of an Anduril IPO by May 2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 61,956% implied yield—a massive asymmetry suggesting either severe illiquidity or mispricing given the defense contractor's known IPO ambitions. With only $0 in 24-hour volume, $1,486 open interest, and 14 days to expiration, this market lacks meaningful liquidity and the extreme yield likely reflects the wide 1¢ spread rather than genuine edge. The high cliff risk index of 24 combined with neutral regime conditions indicates elevated uncertainty around the binary outcome near expiry.

Resolution rules

If Anduril confirms an IPO before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 93920.9%

IY (No) 163.1%

Adj IY 46960%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	93920.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	163.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	46960%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:34 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-26MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →