When will SpaceX IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. The market is pricing in an 85% probability of SpaceX IPO by August 2026, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—80.7% for Yes versus 1466% for No—suggests the No side is severely underpriced relative to tail risk, likely reflecting low liquidity ($82.5k open interest) and a thin 4¢ spread.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 85% probability of SpaceX IPO by August 2026, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—80.7% for Yes versus 1466% for No—suggests the No side is severely underpriced relative to tail risk, likely reflecting low liquidity ($82.5k open interest) and a thin 4¢ spread. With 106 days to expiry, modest 24-hour volume of $488, and realized volatility at 94%, this market appears illiquid and potentially vulnerable to sharp repricing if SpaceX makes any public IPO announcements, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate current equilibrium despite the skewed payoff structure.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-26AUG01 yes 100