What is the current probability for "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 94¢ (94% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15.9% and 1291.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will SpaceX IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will SpaceX IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that When will SpaceX IPO?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 88% probability of SpaceX IPO by end-2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (17.4% for Yes vs.

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94¢

Bid/Ask 90/94¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $16,450.87·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXIPOSPACEX-27JAN01

7-day price38 snapshots · 7 regime

94¢90¢ current

Apr 886¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing an 88% probability of SpaceX IPO by end-2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (17.4% for Yes vs. 1139% for No) signal severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the No side, with only $6 in 24-hour volume against $16k open interest. The sharp 5-cent price decline over seven days combined with a 129% realized volatility and 3.05 vol ratio suggests recent negative sentiment, though the neutral regime and modest 0.6/h information arrival rate indicate no imminent catalyst is driving the move. The 8/10 cliff risk index warrants caution, as the binary nature means the No position could face extreme losses if an IPO announcement suddenly materializes.

Resolution rules

If SpaceX confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15.9%

IY (No) 1291.4%

Adj IY 646%

CRI 9

Overround 9.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	15.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1291.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	646%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	9.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:11:26 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOSPACEX-27JAN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →