Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

The market is pricing Section 702 reauthorization at just 29% despite over two years remaining until expiration, suggesting traders view passage as unlikely even with substantial time for legislative action. The extreme 329% implied yield on the Yes side combined with elevated realized volatility (566%) and a 3.33 vol ratio indicates significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, particularly given that Section 702 has historically been reauthorized and faces a 259-day window. The 6-cent price rise over seven days and modest $1.27M daily volume suggest this may be an under-followed market where informed traders could find value, though the neutral regime score (0.409) indicates no clear directional momentum.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade