Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 4¢ price implying only 4% probability yet showing a staggering 67,796% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or a significant information gap between this venue and broader market consensus. With just 13 days to expiry and only $2,421 in 24-hour volume against $26,221 open interest, the thin liquidity combined with a realized volatility of 2,868% indicates this contract is highly unstable and prone to manipulation. The neutral regime score and modest 1.1 info arrivals per hour suggest no imminent catalyst, making the extreme yield more likely a liquidity artifact than a genuine arbitrage opportunity—traders should be cautious of the wide Yes/No yield divergence (67,796% vs. 118%) in such a thin market approaching resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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