Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh is priced at an extremely high 94¢ with exceptional liquidity ($180.8K in 24h volume), but the asymmetric implied yields reveal significant tail risk—the "No" side offers a stunning 2892% return versus just 11.8% for "Yes," suggesting markets are pricing in a small but material probability of a surprise rejection or alternative nominee. The market has drifted down 2¢ over seven days despite high realized volatility (72%), and with 198 days to expiry, the elevated Cliff Risk Index (16) indicates potential for sharp repricing around key political or economic events that could derail Warsh's confirmation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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