Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 12-cent spread and $6,656 open interest, suggesting minimal trader engagement for a contract expiring in 259 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 12-cent spread and $6,656 open interest, suggesting minimal trader engagement for a contract expiring in 259 days. The 141% annualized implied yield on both sides indicates the market is severely mispriced or reflects genuine uncertainty about Petr Yan's title status nearly two years out, though the 5,491% realized volatility suggests sporadic, volatile trades rather than continuous price discovery. The recent 3-cent decline from 53¢ to 50¢ over seven days combined with a neutral regime and 4.8 information arrivals per hour suggests this is a low-conviction market awaiting catalyst events (title fights, injuries) to drive meaningful price movement.
Also on polymarket at 56¢(Δ +7¢)
Resolution rules
If Petr Yan is the UFC Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-PYAN yes 100