NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

The 24¢ price reflects a modest 24% probability of an NYSE-wide circuit breaker triggering over the next 14 months, but the extreme 448% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals substantial mispricing relative to the tail risk of a severe market disruption. With only $4,167 in 24-hour volume against $11.9M open interest, liquidity is critically thin, making the tight 1¢ spread potentially misleading—any meaningful order flow could shift the price significantly. The neutral regime score (0.341) and stable 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't repriced for recent volatility, leaving this contract vulnerable to sharp moves if equity markets experience elevated turbulence before year-end 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade