Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.8M open interest, suggesting the displayed price may not reflect actual executable liquidity and the 14¢ spread likely overstates tradeable depth. The 6427% implied yield on "Yes" is a classic sign of a thin, distressed market where the price has drifted to an unsustainable level—Chan's 11¢ valuation appears artificially depressed given the 519% realized volatility and recent 3¢-to-11¢ price movement over seven days. With 46 days to resolution and a high cliff risk index of 8, this market carries substantial execution risk and should be approached with extreme caution; any actual trading could move prices dramatically.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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