Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in April 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely meeting at just 6¢ with only 14 days to expiry, yet the asymmetric implied yields (41,573% for Yes vs.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely meeting at just 6¢ with only 14 days to expiry, yet the asymmetric implied yields (41,573% for Yes vs. 169% for No) reveal severe liquidity constraints—the $0 in 24-hour volume and $13.6K open interest suggest minimal trading activity despite the wide 1¢ spread. The cliff risk index of 16 indicates elevated binary outcome risk as we approach the April 30 deadline, and the recent price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ suggests weakening conviction in a Powell-Trump meeting occurring this month.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb8561ecbb2f4dde851343ec94ece28ca8681c05a50e8dea3fae1b97483f2bb80 yes 100