Will Alexandra del Moral Mealer be the Republican nominee for TX-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Alexandra del Moral Mealer be the Republican nominee for TX-09?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows strong conviction in del Moral Mealer's nomination prospects at 80¢, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—24% for Yes versus 175% for No—signal that contrarian bettors see substantial upside in a No resolution.
Analysis
This market shows strong conviction in del Moral Mealer's nomination prospects at 80¢, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—24% for Yes versus 175% for No—signal that contrarian bettors see substantial upside in a No resolution. The minimal liquidity ($1,899.94 open interest with only $1 in 24-hour volume) and wide 7¢ spread suggest this is a thin, illiquid market where the price may not reflect true consensus, and the modest 3-point Cliff Risk Index indicates moderate event concentration risk as we approach the 2026 primary cycle. The steady price appreciation from 70¢ to 80¢ over seven days suggests recent positive sentiment, though with such low volume, even small bets could drive outsized moves.
Resolution rules
If Alexandra del Moral Mealer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-09R26-AMEA yes 100