Will Anthony Snowden be the Republican nominee for NV-04?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Anthony Snowden be the Republican nominee for NV-04?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the theoretical 2096% implied yield on a Yes position.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the theoretical 2096% implied yield on a Yes position. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the high cliff risk index of 32 suggests significant uncertainty around nomination dynamics or candidate viability. With 563 days until expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a dead market lacking sufficient trader interest to establish meaningful price discovery for a relatively obscure House race nomination.
Resolution rules
If Anthony Snowden wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NV-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-04R26-ASNO yes 100