Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 15 percentage points over seven days from 70¢ to 55¢, suggesting growing skepticism about Mythos release timing despite 106 days remaining.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 15 percentage points over seven days from 70¢ to 55¢, suggesting growing skepticism about Mythos release timing despite 106 days remaining. Liquidity is extremely thin with only $42.77 in both volume and open interest, creating a wide 9¢ spread and inflating the implied yield to 281.4% for Yes positions—a figure that likely reflects illiquidity premium rather than true expected value. The asymmetric no-side yield of 420.3% and cliff risk index of 1 warrant caution, as the thin order book could produce sharp repricing on any credible Anthropic announcement regarding Mythos.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26AUG01 yes 100