What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 59¢ (59% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 27, 2026. 5 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5865.9% and 9501.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will average gas prices be above $4.020?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing April 27, 2026.

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59¢

Bid/Ask 55/60¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $6,101.67·OI $7,951.91·Closes Apr 27, 2026·5d remaining

KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.020

7-day price237 snapshots · 28 regime

68¢55¢ current

Apr 2011¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.020 on Apr 27, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5865.9%

IY (No) 9501.9%

Adj IY 8653%

CRI 1

RV 5028%

VR 3.90

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5865.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9501.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8653%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5028%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.90	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:42:57 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXAAAGASW-26APR27-4.020 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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